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Black Swan

"Black Swans" are more common than you might think…..

As a metaphor and in Risk Management terminology a "Black Swan" event is considered to be:

  • an entirely unexpected or unpredictable  event – an outlier
  • one that causes a major effect - extreme impact; and
  • in hindsight could have been predicted or was inevitable – draws retrospective

The phase originated from the assumption that all swans were white and black swans did not exist…..that was until Western explorers set eyes on them in Western Australia in the 17th Century.  Professor Nassim Nicholas Taleb then later developed the theory, which has been popularised in the Risk Management profession.

Examples of “Black Swan” events can include:

  • Fukushima nuclear disaster
  • Wall Street Crash of 1929
  • The start of WWI by the assassination of Franz Ferdinand
  • September 11th 2001 terrorist attacks in the US
  • Black Death in Europe
  • Brexit

So, what do “Black Swan” event have to do with us…….?

….well, we help customers turn their ‘Black Swans’ into ‘White Swans’ on a daily basis!


In our world we see unforeseeable events such as fires and flooding cause catastrophic business interruptions, loss of market share or even business closure.

By their very nature you can never be 100% prepared for “Black Swan” events, or indeed know what impact they will have.  It is important however to be prepared in such a way that you still retain some flexibility in dealing with each individual event and choose partners that can help you when incidents occur.

At BELFOR, we know that "Black Swan" events happen and we have the experience, expertise and know-how to help customers recover from them.

If you would you like to learn more about how BELFOR can support you and your business when your “Black Swan” arrives, please come and visit us as the AIRMIC Conference in Liverpool 11th – 13th June (stand 123).

Alternatively, please leave your contact details and we will get in touch with you.